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LOUISVILLE, Kentucky Predictions of thunderstorms on Saturday could have Kentucky Derby handicappers scrambling to figure out who runs well in the mud.
“Whatever the conditions of running the race are, all 20 will have to do it,” said Curlin trainer Steve Asmussen, seeking his first Derby triumph at his sixth attempt.
“The winner’s going to deserve to have won the Derby because he did it when it mattered.”
Three-times Eclipse Award-winning trainer Todd Pletcher will have a record-tying five horses in the race as he tries to win his first Triple Crown race in 21 attempts.
“He gets through it here really well,” trainer Jerry Hollendorfer told reporters after the workout. “He’s been on (wet tracks) plenty of times training in Northern California.”
Bwana Bull, a 50-1 longshot in the morning line, could receive unexpected backing if the track is sloppy for the 133rd edition of the Run for the Roses.
The chestnut colt by the champion Holy Bull, who will be ridden by Javier Castellano, had a frisky gallop on the wet Churchill Downs racing strip on Friday morning.
A 20-horse race for three-year-olds which would be wide open on a dry day could become chaotic if the steady rain that has fallen on Churchill Downs this week continues.
Street Sense (4-1) will try to become the first Breeders Cup Juvenile champion to win the Derby. Curlin is the early 7/2 favorite in the opening jewel of U.S. A win by the dark bay by Street Cry would give trainer Carl Nafzger his first Derby winner since Unbridled in 1990.
His best chance to end his 0-for-14 streak at the Derby will probably come from Circular Quay (8-1 odds) or Scat Daddy (10-1).
“Like with Unbridled, I like everything I have seen this week,” he said. “There will be no excuses.”
It must follow, therefore, that if we bet the best horse that has started at least twice, we stand an excellent chance of beating the takeout, particularly in races that have several first and second time starters.. This system takes advantage of one of the few glaring inefficiencies in the parimutuel pools, namely that first and second time starters are badly over-bet.
In that spirit. Because speed figures have gained in popularity over the years, anyone following that system now would have trouble coming up with gas money for the ride home from the track.
How do we identify the best pedigree, then? If you’re using the DRF past performances, use the stud fee as a proxy for quality, and the Tomlinson figure to judge suitability for the distance and surface. Most people who love horse racing would be thrilled just to win a little more and lose a little less on their trips to the track.
None of these systems will make you rich, or even guarantee that you will make a profit. To the extent that most handicappers use pedigree at all, it’s usually to identify horses that may improve when switched to the turf, or those who may be expected to win as first time starters. My computer studies of pedigree, based on nearly 100,000 races, suggest that using pedigree in that manner offers no advantage to the player.
For as long as humans have bet on horse racing there have been system sellers trying to con the gullible into parting with their hard earned money with the lure of easy profits to be made on the sport of kings. Thanks for reading, and see you in the winner’s circle.
Horse Racing System #1 – In maiden races, bet the horse with the best last race speed figure that has had at least two career starts. If the tote board suggests that the public is overlooking these mitigating circumstances, make your play.
Horse Racing System #4 – Bet low-priced favorites to place. Let me let you in on a little secret about these “magic formulas”. They will, however increase the chances of a profitable day at the races by ensuring that your wager dollars go where they have the best chance of success. My study suggests that’s not the case.
Horse Racing System #5 – Bet Horses breaking from the inside post in route races. None of them work.
The horse with the best last race speed figure (whether Beyer, BRIS, or Equibase) may not be the best horse in the race, but he’s probably not far off, so we can use that as a proxy for selection purposes.
However, just because systems won’t make you rich doesn’t mean there’s no place for them at all in a horseplayer’s arsenal. This is somewhat counter-intuitive since you’d expect that horses with good pedigrees that end up in the maiden claiming ranks probably can’t run at all. One of the few anomalies turned up by Michael Nunamaker in his pioneering computer study “Modern Impact Values”, published in 1994, was that horses breaking from the inside post position in route races won more than their fair share of races, and were under-bet by the public. The inside post in turf routes actually showed a small profit, but this was based on a small sample size and cannot be relied upon. It should go without saying that you should actually like the favorite’s chances after evaluating the race with your own handicapping.
Nunamaker reported that the inside post in dirt route races won at a 20% greater than expected rate, and lost only 10 cents on the dollar, much better than the track take. The inside post combined with early speed is a particularly potent combination, since the horse will not have to exert himself as much to gain his preferred position at the front of the pack.
This causes the favorite to be under bet in the place pool, leading to a profit opportunity for us to take advantage of by betting the favorite to place. Few bother to even look at the comment line for the race, let alone take the trouble to seek out and watch the replay of the race. I was able to replicate this result in my own study of nearly 100,000 races conducted a decade later.
In the first place, the parimutuel takeout in horse racing is large (over 15%) and the mutuel pools are relatively efficient, so that even systems with a strong basis in reality can’t overcome the size of the takeout.
For instance, many speed figure handicappers reported making horse racing profits in the 60′s and 70′s simply by betting horses with the best last race speed figure. This is another mistake that bettors make: in a race with a clear standout, many people give up on the win pool and bet their choice to place, thinking that they’ll get paid even if the favorite wins.
First time starters return only about 60 cents on the dollar, and second time starters are only a little better, returning less than 70 cents on the dollar. Horse Racing System #3 – In maiden claiming races, bet the horse with the best pedigree. The horse with the best combination of the two is the play.
Looking for a dead simple horse racing system that will allow you to quit your job and make a living betting the horses in just 10 minutes a day? Good luck with that!
Look for comment lines like “bled”, “lost rider”, “clipped heels”, “stumbled”, “steadied”, “between horses”, “rank”, and “jumped shadows” that suggest that a horse’s last race was not indicative of its true ability. I’ve identified some of the most useful handicapping factors that have a proven history of doing much better than the track takeout and put them together with some simple rules that should make your trips to the racetrack more fun and profitable. This offers opportunity to more diligent players.
In fact, pedigree does not generally offer wager value with one curious exception: well bred horses do surprisingly well in maiden claiming races. Just don’t expect to quit your day job.
Instead of blindly betting all horses breaking from the inside, you might use this to supplement your handicapping, paying particular attention to the inside horse, and betting it when you like the horse on other handicapping grounds. In most case the public seems to take a horse’s last running line at face value. My own studies have shown a similar advantage for the inside post in routes.
Second, the very nature of the parimutuel system itself means that any profits to be made from following a particular set of rules will quickly be arbitraged away as the followers of that system drive down the odds of horses chosen by the system.
Horse Racing System #2 – Bet horses that have an excuse for a poor performance in their last race. With the BRIS pp’s you can use the Sire Production Factor in concert with the pedigree rating